ANALYTICS / RACE READINESS
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RACE READINESS
Window
RACE BRIEF · GRAVEL
Dirt Diggler
September 5, 2026
·
16d out
· 48 mi, 4600 ft. climbing
VERDICT
Race ready
limited by 1m
100
FIT · 100
BODY · 7-DAY AVG INTO RACE
HRV
7d avg
77
-1.5
best prior 79 · Dirt Diggler, 13/27 40+ — 72/164 Overall
SLEEP
7d avg
7.3h
+0.3
best prior 7.0h
RESTING HR
7d avg
52bpm
+0.3
best prior 52 bpm
RECOVERY SCORE
7d avg
66
/ 100
YELLOW
VS BEST PRIOR RESULT
HRV -1 vs week before Dirt Diggler, 13/27 40+ — 72/164 Overall · Sleep +0.3h · 0 bpm higher RHR
COURSE PROFILE
~3h 10m @ 180w NP
Elevation Profile
Start 47.5 mi · 5683 ft gain Finish
0
23.8 mi
47.5 mi
SURFACE · OSM
25m snap
dirt 34.2% gravel 24.0% asphalt 23.1% unpaved 12.7% paved 6.0% (34.2% off-road est.)
MMP GAP
1 min
+24%
COURSE
315w
90D BEST
389w
5 min
+61%
COURSE
172w
90D BEST
278w
20 min
+90%
COURSE
113w
90D BEST
215w
PACING BAND · OVERALL
TARGET NP
189
– 200w
0.88–0.93 × 20m MMP anchor
EST DURATION
3h 10m
COURSE NP
180w
COMPOUND SCORE NOW
920
Race ready
vs 12m peak: -297
CHARACTER Sustained 0% punch / 65% sustained / 35% long
~3h 10m at target pace (
w NP) · long
FTP est. 204w
47.5 mi
PACING TARGETS
sustained 190–204w
long 173–188w
overall NP: 163–177w NP
CLIMB-BY-CLIMB · 47.5 mi
★ separation point
# Climb Start Dist Gain Avg % ~Duration Type Target
01 Climb 1 mi 3.67 3281 ft +118 ft 3.6% 3.1 min sustained 190–204w
02 ★ Climb 2 mi 6.21 12795 ft +549 ft 4.3% 13.3 min long 173–188w
03 Climb 3 mi 11.25 6234 ft +282 ft 4.5% 6.7 min sustained 190–204w
04 ★ Climb 4 mi 13.61 6234 ft +296 ft 4.7% 6.8 min sustained 190–204w
05 Climb 5 mi 15.04 3937 ft +246 ft 6.3% 5.1 min sustained 190–204w
06 Climb 6 mi 16.65 5577 ft +177 ft 3.2% 5.0 min sustained 190–204w
07 ★ Climb 7 mi 18.14 9514 ft +517 ft 5.4% 11.3 min long 173–188w
08 Climb 8 mi 32.81 5906 ft +184 ft 3.1% 5.3 min sustained 190–204w
09 Climb 9 mi 34.86 6890 ft +334 ft 4.9% 7.7 min sustained 190–204w
10 Climb 10 mi 38.46 3609 ft +127 ft 3.5% 3.4 min sustained 190–204w
11 Climb 11 mi 45.55 2953 ft +198 ft 6.7% 4.1 min sustained 190–204w
RACE STRATEGY · AI
PAST RACES
XC · July 25, 2026
Jerdon Mountain Challenge
810
compound score
Building
vs 12m peak
-407
6w rides
22
build peak
1037
hrv 7d
74
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 230w
Actual NP: 171.4w
Course target: 196–209w
Too conservative
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 300w 379w 79%
5 min 208w 267w 78%
20 min 183w 215w 85%
ANALYSIS NOTES
saved 2026-07-25
PACING
  • · NP of 171.4w landed 13% below the implied band low of 196w for a 3:22 long-duration XCM — a significant miss, but one driven by a rear derailleur failure that reached near-complete dysfunction at mile 18, precisely at the base of Star Gap and the entry to the final 10-mile climbing sequence
  • · All three MMP ceiling percentages (1m 79.1%, 5m 77.9%, 20m 85.1%) confirm substantial reserve was left unused across every power duration, inconsistent with any pacing error at this margin
  • · A 300w 1m peak against a 379w 90-day ceiling — nearly 80w below best — and an average HR 7 beats below Sasquatch Scrambler across a 70-minute longer race reinforce that cardiovascular output was never near race ceiling
  • · This is a mechanically bounded result, not a fitness or pacing shortfall, and no execution conclusions should be drawn from the NP gap
CALIBRATION
  • · The 171.4w NP should be treated as a mechanically suppressed floor, not a calibrated Jerdon execution ceiling; the 185–198w NP target from the pre-race model remains untested and is the operative anchor for 2027
  • · Drivetrain preparation for muddy, high-gain XCM needs explicit pre-race protocol — rear mech inspection under muddy-conditions simulation and a race-morning indexing check are non-negotiable at Jerdon-type courses
  • · The mid-taper readiness arc (two suppression dips July 15 and 18) was flatter than the Sasquatch pre-race bounce; Days 10–7 before long-duration XCM targets should be treated as a protected load-compression block
  • · The long-duration XCM NP band should be calibrated independently from the gravel upward execution bias — the 6–10% above-model pattern from Bootlegger and Valhalla should not be assumed to transfer to punchy 3+ hour XCM on traction-limited terrain
  • · A clean 2027 Jerdon result at 185–195w NP would establish the first on-course baseline and confirm whether the training arc is progressing
Course Intelligence
CHARACTER Long 15% punch / 8% sustained / 77% long
~2h 1m at target pace (
w NP) · medium
FTP est. 204w
28.5 mi
PACING TARGETS
punch 210–228w
sustained 190–204w
long 173–188w
overall NP: 173–186w NP
CLIMB-BY-CLIMB · 28.5 mi
★ separation point
# Climb Start Dist Gain Avg % ~Duration Type Target
01 ★ Climb 1 mi 4.41 5577 ft +212 ft 3.8% 5.5 min sustained 190–204w
02 Climb 2 mi 6.28 1969 ft +81 ft 4.1% 2.0 min punchy 210–228w
03 Climb 3 mi 6.9 2953 ft +97 ft 3.3% 2.7 min punchy 210–228w
04 ★ Climb 4 mi 8.08 17388 ft +887 ft 5.1% 20.1 min long 173–188w
05 Climb 5 mi 12.49 2297 ft +115 ft 5.0% 2.6 min punchy 210–228w
06 ★ Climb 6 mi 15.53 7874 ft +601 ft 7.6% 11.9 min long 173–188w
07 Climb 7 mi 18.7 11155 ft +508 ft 4.6% 12.1 min long 173–188w
08 Climb 8 mi 21.0 2953 ft +102 ft 3.5% 2.8 min punchy 210–228w
SURFACE · OSM
25m snap
dirt 38.4% gravel 25.3% asphalt 15.3% unpaved 10.3% compacted 5.5% paved 5.2% concrete 0.2% (38.3% off-road est.)
Elevation Profile
Start 28.5 mi · 5240 ft gain Finish
RACE STRATEGY
saved 2026-07-23
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POWER BREAKDOWN
FIT SCORE
100
100 = covered
Limited by: 1m
PACING BAND
185–198w
Duration Course Demand Your 90D Best Gap Attack Floor
1m 367w 379w +4% 360w
5m 223w 267w +20% 245w
20m 136w 215w +58% 198w
PACING STRATEGY
  • › Jerdon Mountain Challenge is the longest and most climbing-dense XC race of the season — 45.8km and 1,597m of gain puts this firmly in the 150–210 minute long-duration bracket
  • › The entire strategic picture shifts from Sasquatch: this is not a punchy sprint where 1m anaerobic capacity determines the outcome
  • › At this duration, aerobic pacing discipline across three hours is the race
  • › Your 20m MMP (215w) has meaningfully rebuilt since Sasquatch — that is your weapon here
  • › The 1m gap (3.5%) remains the limiting factor, but the risk isn't holeshot blowups — it's repeating that same punch 30+ times across 5,240 feet of climbing on progressively tired legs
  • › Match management at scale is the game
  • › PACING BAND: Target 185–198w NP for the full race
  • › Course demand anchor is 189–200w; given the long duration and the need for a conservative early read, operate in the 185–195w band for the first hour and allow it to drift toward 195–200w in the final third as the race resolves
  • › FIRST THIRD (~Miles 0–9): Controlled start is mandatory
  • › With 28.5 miles ahead, any surge above 375w in the first 5 miles is a long-term liability
  • › The holeshot matters for position, but this is not an XCO start — the field will string out over distance, not in the first 500 meters
  • › Cap the start effort at 360–375w for 60–90 sec
  • › Settle into a sustainable groove on early punchy climbs at 330–355w, recover fully on every descent
  • › NP target at mile 9: at or below 195w
  • › If NP is above 198w at mile 9, ease the next cluster of climbs immediately — you have 19+ miles left
  • › MIDDLE THIRD (~Miles 9–18): The body is honest here
  • › Accumulated fatigue from the first 9 miles begins to reveal who paced correctly
  • › Sustain 190–205w on rolling sections
  • › Push punchy crests at 340–365w — your 5m MMP (267w) gives 19.9% headroom over typical 5m course demand, meaning sustained mid-race pressure is well within ceiling
  • › This is the section where you absorb time on riders who went out too hard
  • › Do NOT respond to accelerations above 370w at miles 12–15 unless it's the race-defining move — you have a final third to race
  • › FINAL THIRD (~Miles 18–28.5): If NP discipline held through mile 15, you are physically fresher than most of the field
  • › Begin applying progressive pressure from mile 18 onward — push climb tops to 350–375w, recover aggressively on descents
  • › The two late-race separation climbs (miles 20–24 range) are where the race is decided: riders who overcook the first half have nothing left
  • › This is your attack window
  • › At mile 24+, full commitment — 365–385w on all significant climbs
  • › Final punch to the finish: burn all remaining matches
  • › READINESS NOTE: Current HRV trajectory is strongly positive (84 on Jul 22, 87 on Jul 21) — no downward adjustment
  • › Execute the full target band
  • › Race-morning check: if HRV drops below 58 or pulse climbs above 56, trim the band to 182–192w NP and cap all punchy surges at 355w
  • › Current trajectory makes this unlikely
  • › KEY RISK: The single biggest threat at Jerdon is treating the first hour like Sasquatch
  • › The punchy course character feels similar — frequent short climbs — but at 2.5x the duration, every match you spend above 375w in the first 90 minutes compounds
  • › The 1m MMP gap is only 3.5%; with 30+ punchy efforts ahead, each one over-ceiling depletes a reserve that doesn't replenish
  • › Discipline through mile 12 is the highest-leverage decision in this race
KEY SEPARATION POINTS
Mile Type Description Target
0.5 punchy Race start — secure position in the first 90 sec before the field strings out. Cap at 360–375w. Do NOT chase riders going 390w+ — with 28+ miles ahead, a 400w opener costs far more than at Sasquatch. Get to a clean wheel and settle. ~368w
7 punchy First major NP discipline checkpoint. Check rolling NP — if above 196w at this marker, back off the next climb cluster by 10–15w. Hold 330–350w on punchy crests. Race is being run in miles 18–28, not here. ~340w
14 sustained Mid-race sustained pressure section. 5m headroom is +19.9% over typical demand — this is where sustained climbing is the weapon. Push 340–365w on climb tops, recover on descents. Absorb time on riders who overcook the first third. ~352w
20 sustained Late-race separation climb — primary attack window. Riders who overcook miles 0–14 are fading here. If NP has been disciplined, you are feeling stronger than those around you. Go hard at 355–375w and commit to any move that forms at or below 370w. ~365w
25 punchy Final significant climb — burn all remaining matches. Full effort, 365–385w. Only place in this race to deliberately push at or above the 90-day 1m ceiling. Faders from the overcooking first half are cracking here. Leave nothing. ~375w
NOTES
  • › Strategy generated July 23, 2 days out
  • › No prior strategy on file for this race (2026 edition)
  • › Prior-year Jerdon MTB Challenge (Jul 2025, race ID 11) exists in history but has no attached strategy or course data — this is a clean build from the 2026 GPX
  • › Key context: (1) Course GPX confirmed, 45.8km / 1,597m — this is the longest XC race of the athlete's season by a wide margin
  • › Sasquatch was 16mi / 1,926ft; Jerdon is 28.5mi / 5,240ft
  • › Duration bracket shifts to long (150–240m), anchoring NP at ~85% FTP. (2) FTP 230w (coach bump June 6)
  • › 85% = 195w
  • › Course demand tool returns pacing band 189–200w — tighter than the FTP anchor; using course demand as the operative anchor. (3) 90-day MMP snapshot: 1m 379w (Jun 13 Openers), 5m 267w (Apr 30 BC Corollas), 20m 215w (Jul 5 road ride — +8w vs
  • › 207w at Sasquatch, best reading in the 90-day window)
  • › 20m has meaningfully rebuilt since Sasquatch; 1m and 5m are flat-to-stale. (4) Limiting factor is 1m: only 3.5% gap over typical course demand (379w vs
  • › 367w)
  • › Punchy match book is shallow — same constraint as Sasquatch, compounded by far greater race duration. (5) Readiness trajectory: 10-day HRV mean 73.3, resting pulse mean 52.9
  • › Last 3 days: HRV 77/87/84, pulse 51/48/48
  • › Strong pre-race bounce confirmed
  • › No downward NP modifier applied. (6) No prior-year execution data from this specific course to calibrate an upward bias
  • › Given the race duration (~180–200+ min), the conservative end of the pacing band is appropriate — this is not a Sasquatch-type 90-110 min punchy sprint
  • › Execution history (Bootlegger, Valhalla) at 3+ hours ran 6-8% above conservative model bands; however, Jerdon's punchy limiting factor at long duration makes over-execution a greater risk
  • › The band is set at course-demand anchor with slight upward bias for this athlete's execution pattern
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
XC · June 14, 2026
Sasquatch Scrambler
16 mi, 1,926ft climbing
1017
compound score
Race ready
vs 12m peak
-199
6w rides
18
build peak
1044
hrv 7d
85
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 230w
Actual NP: 205.2w
Course target: 214–225w
Slightly under
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 366w 379w 97%
5 min 260w 267w 97%
20 min 190w 207w 92%
ANALYSIS NOTES
saved 2026-06-15
PACING
  • · NP of 205.2w landed slightly under the 214–225w implied band anchored to the freshly raised 230w FTP, but aligns closely with the validated execution pattern from Bootlegger (199w) and Valhalla (203.5w) when re-anchored to the prior 210w FTP
  • · The 1m and 5m ceilings were both nearly maxed (96.5% and 97.3%), reflecting a punchy course where anaerobic surges were the binding constraint throughout
  • · The 20m ceiling usage of only 91.5% confirms the aerobic engine was never the limiting factor — the course taxed the short-duration match book, not sustained threshold capacity
  • · Race morning HRV of 80.0 and resting pulse of 49 bpm confirmed full recovery from the June 1–7 suppression block, and the athlete executed close to the available ceiling on the durations that mattered
  • · The slightly_under verdict is an artifact of the uncalibrated new FTP, not evidence of under-execution
CALIBRATION
  • · The 230w FTP bump (June 6) is not yet calibrated to XCM execution — future NP targets should reference 200–207w as the validated execution band until confirmed by additional races at the new FTP
  • · The 1m ceiling was essentially fully spent at 96.5% against a course typical demand of 368w; rebuilding 1m MMP above 400w is the highest-leverage training priority for punchy XCM formats
  • · Pre-race HRV suppression followed by a supercompensation bounce (Jun 7 trough at 32, race-morning at 80) confirms this athlete can race well off a deep dip — the watch condition is a race-morning HRV above 72 and resting pulse below 54
  • · Chronic short sleep (6.5–7.3h) in the final race week did not impair execution here but is likely responsible for the June 7 crash; 8h sleep in Days 10–5 before a target race is the easiest risk-reduction lever
  • · For future punchy XCM, holeshot discipline below 380w is structurally validated — at 96.5% 1m ceiling usage across the full race, any unforced overspend in mile 1 compounds across every subsequent punch
Course Intelligence
CHARACTER Sustained 18% punch / 48% sustained / 34% long
~1h 6m at target pace (
w NP) · short
FTP est. 197w
16.2 mi
Short race — showing race-defining separation points only.
OVERALL NP TARGET: 183–193w NP
SEPARATION POINTS
★ separation point
# Climb Start Dist Gain Avg % ~Duration Type Target
01 ★ Climb 1 mi 0.62 2297 ft +68 ft 3.0% 2.1 min punchy 203–221w
02 ★ Climb 2 mi 1.49 4265 ft +302 ft 7.1% 6.3 min sustained 183–197w
03 ★ Climb 3 mi 8.51 8202 ft +437 ft 5.3% 10.0 min long 167–181w
SURFACE · OSM
25m snap
dirt 82.7% asphalt 8.0% ground 8.0% gravel 1.5% (82.4% off-road est.)
Elevation Profile
Start 16.2 mi · 2470 ft gain Finish
RACE STRATEGY
saved 2026-06-13
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POWER BREAKDOWN
FIT SCORE
100
100 = covered
Limited by: 1m
PACING BAND
195–207w
Duration Course Demand Your 90D Best Gap Attack Floor
1m 368w 379w +3% 375w
5m 197w 267w +36% 240w
20m 89w 207w +134% 185w
PACING STRATEGY
  • › Sasquatch Scrambler is a 90–115 min sustained XCM effort on a punchy course where 1m power is the binding constraint — 379w 90-day MMP vs
  • › 368w typical demand, only 3% gap
  • › Every hard punch costs real anaerobic currency that doesn't fully replenish mid-race
  • › The engine for this course is your 5m power (267w, 36% above typical demand) — sustained punchy climbing is where you dominate; pure 1-minute spikes are the liability
  • › PACING BAND: Target 195–207w NP
  • › Course demand anchors at 183–193w from 20m MMP, but two-race execution history (Bootlegger, Valhalla) consistently runs 6–9% above that band
  • › FTP at 90% = 207w
  • › Readiness is at healthy baseline — no downward modifier
  • › Execute the full band confidently
  • › HOLESHOT (Mile 0): Hard 60–90 sec effort to secure clean trail position before singletrack narrows
  • › Cap at 370–385w
  • › Do NOT chase riders lighting up 400w+ — the 1m gap is only 3%, and an opener above 390w depletes your match book before the race has started
  • › Get to a clean wheel, get into the trail with space, and let the 400w spenders pay the tax in miles 3–5
  • › FIRST THIRD (Miles 0–5): Controlled field sorting
  • › Punchy climbs will feel like race pace — that is correct
  • › Hold 340–360w on punchy efforts
  • › Recover hard on every descent
  • › The 1m gap is shallow: any surge above 380w burns deeply and repeatedly
  • › NP discipline target: do not exceed 205w NP through mile 5
  • › MIDDLE THIRD (Miles 5–11): This is the race engine
  • › Body is warmed up, legs are honest
  • › Sustain 215–225w on rolling terrain
  • › Apply 350–370w on punchy crests
  • › Your 5m MMP (267w) gives 36% headroom over typical 5m demand — this is the attack weapon
  • › If a tactical move forms, respond once up to 370w for 60–90 sec, then settle
  • › Do not match repeat attacks above 365w if you've already spent a hard punch in the prior 5 minutes
  • › FINAL THIRD (Miles 11–16): Discipline dividend
  • › If you've held NP below 205w through mile 8 and managed 1m spend, you will feel stronger than riders around you
  • › Begin applying pressure from mile 12 — push climb tops to 360–380w, recover aggressively on descents
  • › Final significant climb (mile 15): full attack, 375–395w
  • › Burn all remaining matches
  • › This is the race-defining moment — faders crack here, your 5m capacity is the weapon
  • › RACE MORNING MODIFIER: If you wake with HRV below 60, trim NP ceiling to 195–200w and cap all punchy surges at 360w
  • › Current trajectory (83.1 race eve) makes this unlikely — but check
  • › KEY RISK: The 1m MMP gap is thin
  • › The holeshot and any early punchy over-effort (miles 0–5) depletes the match book faster than at Valhalla or Stump Jump
  • › Discipline in the first third is the highest-leverage decision in this race
KEY SEPARATION POINTS
Mile Type Description Target
0 punchy Holeshot — 60–90 sec hard effort to secure clean position before singletrack narrows. Cap at 370–385w. Do NOT chase 400w+ openers — 1m gap is only 3% and early overage is costly. ~378w
4 punchy First key punchy climb — field sorting begins. Hold 340–360w. Resist surges above 380w. Race is not decided here. Let overcookers go and reel them in later. ~350w
8 sustained Mid-race NP discipline checkpoint. NP should be at or below 205w here. If above 208w, ease the next two climbs by 10–15w. Sustain 215–225w on rolling terrain, 350–365w on punchy crests. ~220w
12 punchy Late-race separation climb — race-defining. Riders who overcook miles 0–8 are cracking here. Accelerate through faders at 360–380w. Go with any move forming at or below 375w. This is the primary attack window. ~370w
15 punchy Final punch to finish — burn all remaining matches. Full effort 375–395w. The only place in this race to deliberately approach or exceed your 1m ceiling. Leave nothing. ~385w
NOTES
  • › Final pre-race strategy update — June 13, 1 day out
  • › Supersedes all prior entries
  • › Three key data points drive this revision: (1) 1m MMP recovered from 373w (Jun 9) to 379w — gap over typical 1m demand widens from 1.2% → 3.0%, still the limiting factor but with marginally more headroom. (2) Readiness trajectory has fully reversed from the early-June suppression block
  • › Jun 7 low of HRV 32 has cleared; HRV stabilized at 72–84 Jun 10–13, with race-eve reading of 83.1 / 51 bpm resting pulse
  • › 10-day mean ~70; today is ~19% above — no downward NP modifier applies, full target band authorized. (3) FTP 230w (coach bump Jun 6)
  • › Race profile: 16 mi / 1,926ft XCM, estimated 90–115 min
  • › Course GPX confirmed: 26.1km / 753m, punchy character, fit score 100, limiting factor 1m
  • › Two-race execution calibration (Bootlegger 199.2w NP / Valhalla 203.5w NP) consistently ran 6–9% above duration model band — this athlete executes above conservative anchors
  • › NP target 195–207w reflects that bias
  • › Sleep has been 6.5–7.2h range; acceptable but not ideal — prioritize 8h tonight
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
XC · May 16, 2026
Stump Jump
XCO format, 7.93 miles, 558ft climbing
773
compound score
Building
vs 12m peak
-444
6w rides
23
build peak
1074
hrv 7d
69
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 210w
Actual NP: 201.6w
Course target: 204–221w
Slightly under
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 373w 412w 91%
5 min 227w 267w 85%
20 min 190w 207w 92%
Course Intelligence
CHARACTER Punchy 100% punch / 0% sustained / 0% long
~52 min at target pace (
w NP) · short
FTP est. 197w
15.0 mi
Short race — showing race-defining separation points only.
OVERALL NP TARGET: 191–207w NP
SEPARATION POINTS
★ separation point
# Climb Start Dist Gain Avg % ~Duration Type Target
01 ★ Climb 1 mi 4.97 2297 ft +80 ft 3.5% 2.2 min punchy 203–221w
SURFACE · OSM
25m snap
dirt 98.8% asphalt 1.2% (98.8% off-road est.)
Elevation Profile
Start 15.0 mi · 1140 ft gain Finish
RACE STRATEGY
saved 2026-05-10
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POWER BREAKDOWN
FIT SCORE
100
100 = covered
Limited by: 20m
PACING BAND
205–215w
Duration Course Demand Your 90D Best Gap Attack Floor
1m 355w 412w +16% 410w
5m 215w 267w +24% 240w
20m 207w 207w +0% 210w
PACING STRATEGY
  • › HOLESHOT: 400-420W for 60-90 sec to secure position before tech section
  • › TECH SECTION: Ride clean, not fast
  • › Recover from start effort, stay on a wheel, no forced passes
  • › SMOOTH MIDPOINT: Attack every corner exit and punchy crest, 380-420W repeated 10-20 sec efforts
  • › This is the microburst pattern — where passes are made
  • › LAP 1 FINISH CLIMB: 360-375W, controlled, protect Lap 2
  • › LAP 2 FINISH CLIMB: Race-defining
  • › Full attack 375-390W
  • › Riders who overcook Lap 1 crack here
KEY SEPARATION POINTS
Mile Type Description Target
0 punchy Holeshot. 60-90 sec maximal to secure position before tech locks order. ~410w
4 punchy Smooth midpoint. Repeated corner-exit attacks 10-20 sec at 380-420W. Where passes are made. ~395w
7.5 sustained End-of-lap climb Lap 1. Controlled 360-375W. Resist surges, protect Lap 2. ~368w
15.4 punchy End-of-lap climb Lap 2. Race-defining. Full attack — faders crack here. ~385w
NOTES
  • › Recon May 10
  • › 2 laps ~45 min each, ~85-90 min total
  • › Three sections: tech singletrack (first half, position locks early), smooth power midpoint (open, attack corners/crests), end-of-lap climb (separation if fresh)
  • › Holeshot matters
  • › Cat 2
  • › 90-day MMP: 1m 412W, 5m 267W, 20m 207W
  • › Race NP target 205-215W
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
GRAVEL · April 25, 2026
Race to Valhalla
48 mi, 4,688ft climbing
737
compound score
Building
vs 12m peak
-480
6w rides
22
build peak
904
hrv 7d
75
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 210w
Actual NP: 190.4w
Course target: 179–191w
On target
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 310w 412w 75%
5 min 221w 258w 86%
20 min 192w 207w 93%
ANALYSIS NOTES
PACING
  • · NP of 203.5w landed 6.5% above the real-FTP-anchored band (179–191w, 85–91% of 210w FTP)
  • · With the proxy FTP of 197w, this looked dramatically over; at the correct 210w FTP it reads as a disciplined near-ceiling execution
  • · 20m ceiling usage of 92.5% confirms the mi 16 climb was at threshold
  • · Final attack off the last climb produced a 221.4w 5m best — above the 204w separation target — funded by preserved 1m capacity (75.2% ceiling)
  • · Held off chasers by 5 seconds
  • · P9/29 40+, 41 overall
CALIBRATION
  • · 203.5w NP at 96.9% of real FTP (210w) for a 3-hour gravel race is the validated Valhalla execution ceiling
  • · The 6.5% overage above the duration model is consistent with Bootlegger and likely reflects the model being slightly conservative at these durations for this athlete
  • · Course punchiness was underestimated — 5m repeatability was the binding constraint, not 20m endurance
  • · Position before paved sections is critical at this event
  • · Real FTP (210w) is itself likely understated; retest will sharpen future band targets further
Course Intelligence
CHARACTER Long 31% punch / 20% sustained / 48% long
~2h 59m at target pace (
w NP) · medium
FTP est. 211w
48.3 mi
PACING TARGETS
punch 217–236w
sustained 196–211w
long 179–194w
overall NP: 179–192w NP
CLIMB-BY-CLIMB · 48.3 mi
★ separation point
# Climb Start Dist Gain Avg % ~Duration Type Target
01 Climb 1 mi 1.86 2953 ft +94 ft 3.2% 2.3 min punchy 217–236w
02 Climb 2 mi 3.36 2953 ft +94 ft 3.2% 2.3 min punchy 217–236w
03 Climb 3 mi 4.66 1969 ft +76 ft 3.9% 1.7 min punchy 217–236w
04 Climb 4 mi 7.89 2953 ft +93 ft 3.1% 2.3 min punchy 217–236w
05 Climb 5 mi 9.69 2953 ft +102 ft 3.5% 2.4 min punchy 217–236w
06 ★ Climb 6 mi 15.97 17060 ft +1040 ft 6.1% 19.2 min long 179–194w
07 ★ Climb 7 mi 24.85 3281 ft +153 ft 4.7% 3.1 min sustained 196–211w
08 Climb 8 mi 28.89 2297 ft +89 ft 3.9% 2.0 min punchy 217–236w
09 ★ Climb 9 mi 31.01 5249 ft +160 ft 3.0% 4.0 min sustained 196–211w
10 Climb 10 mi 37.66 2625 ft +131 ft 5.0% 2.6 min punchy 217–236w
11 Climb 11 mi 42.32 3937 ft +126 ft 3.2% 3.1 min sustained 196–211w
SURFACE · OSM
25m snap
asphalt 56.9% gravel 22.6% compacted 10.4% unpaved 10.0% dirt 0.1%
Elevation Profile
Start 48.3 mi · 6080 ft gain Finish
RACE STRATEGY
saved 2026-04-20
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POWER BREAKDOWN
FIT SCORE
100
100 = covered
Limited by: 1m
PACING BAND
195–206w
Duration Course Demand Your 90D Best Gap Attack Floor
1m 340w 412w +21% 360w
5m 190w 258w +36% 204w
20m 124w 222w +79% 187w
PACING STRATEGY
  • › Target 179–192w NP for the full race
  • › On punchy climbs (<3 min), ride your tempo — don't spike chasing surges
  • › On sustained and long climbs, hold 196–211w and 179–194w respectively
  • › The 19-minute separation climb at mile 16 is the defining effort: treat it like a long TT at 179–194w, not a punch
  • › Riders who go above FTP there will crack in the final 15 miles
  • › If Friday HRV is below 65, dial NP target down to 175–185w
KEY SEPARATION POINTS
Mile Type Description Target
16 long 5.2 km / +317m / 6.1% avg — ~19 min. Race-defining climb. At 20m MMP ceiling. Hold 179–194w, let gaps open, don't chase. ~187w
24.9 sustained 1.0 km / +47m / 4.7% — ~3 min. Surface-adjusted Sep 2 (replaces mi 22.6 which dropped below duration floor). Hard sustained effort on taxed legs after the big climb. ~204w
31 sustained 1.6 km / +49m / 3.0% — ~4 min. Past halfway with accumulated fatigue. Good NP discipline to here means you're moving through riders. ~204w
NOTES
  • › Coming off Bootlegger 100k 7 days prior
  • › Today's HRV 76.6 / pulse 52 shows solid bounce-back — trending toward baseline with 5 days to recover
  • › 20m course demand (224w peak) is essentially at 90-day 20m MMP ceiling (222w), confirming the big sustained climb is a true threshold effort
  • › Fit score 100 on p95 demands — the course is within capability on typical efforts; separation points are where gaps open
  • › Surface: 57% asphalt · 23% gravel · 10% compacted · 10% unpaved
  • › Surface-adjusted est. race duration: ~179 min
  • › Course character: 48% long, 20% sustained, 31% punchy
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
GRAVEL · April 18, 2026
Bootlegger 100k, P6/18, 40+, 32/128 overall
847
compound score
Building
vs 12m peak
-370
6w rides
21
build peak
904
hrv 7d
70
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 210w
Actual NP: 186.1w
Course target: 168–183w
Slightly over
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 317w 412w 77%
5 min 237w 258w 92%
20 min 207w 222w 94%
ANALYSIS NOTES
PACING
  • · NP of 199.2w landed 8.7% above the real-FTP-anchored band (168–183w, 80–87% of 210w FTP)
  • · 5m and 20m ceiling usage at 92–94% confirms this was a near-ceiling sustained effort across a 3:54 race
  • · Three long separation climbs (mi 20–22, 22–25, 35–37) drove the ceiling usage; 1m power barely touched (77%), leaving anaerobic capacity in reserve throughout
  • · P6/18 40+, 32/128 overall
CALIBRATION
  • · 199.2w NP at 94.9% of real FTP (210w) for a 3:54 gravel race is the validated Bootlegger ceiling
  • · The 80–87% duration model is consistently conservative for this athlete at 3+ hour efforts — both this race and Valhalla ran 8–10% above the band high end while producing strong finishing capacity
  • · Real FTP (210w) is itself likely understated; the two-race pattern suggests true FTP is closer to 215–220w
  • · Surface-aware Crr model well-calibrated on 40% dirt course
  • · Retest FTP before next major gravel block
Course Intelligence
CHARACTER Long 3% punch / 36% sustained / 61% long
~3h 45m at target pace (
w NP) · long
FTP est. 211w
58.2 mi
PACING TARGETS
sustained 196–211w
long 179–194w
overall NP: 169–184w NP
CLIMB-BY-CLIMB · 58.2 mi
★ separation point
# Climb Start Dist Gain Avg % ~Duration Type Target
01 Climb 1 mi 4.35 3609 ft +143 ft 4.0% 3.1 min sustained 196–211w
02 Climb 2 mi 14.17 5249 ft +376 ft 7.2% 6.7 min sustained 196–211w
03 ★ Climb 3 mi 20.07 11155 ft +549 ft 4.9% 10.9 min long 179–194w
04 ★ Climb 4 mi 22.37 11483 ft +682 ft 5.9% 12.7 min long 179–194w
05 ★ Climb 5 mi 34.49 11811 ft +617 ft 5.2% 12.0 min long 179–194w
06 Climb 6 mi 41.57 7546 ft +382 ft 5.1% 7.5 min sustained 196–211w
07 Climb 7 mi 51.95 4265 ft +186 ft 4.4% 3.9 min sustained 196–211w
08 Climb 8 mi 57.23 2297 ft +87 ft 3.8% 1.9 min punchy 217–236w
SURFACE · OSM
25m snap
dirt 39.8% asphalt 29.9% gravel 22.2% unpaved 7.9% concrete 0.2% (39.8% off-road est.)
Elevation Profile
Start 58.2 mi · 4868 ft gain Finish
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
ROAD · December 6, 2025
NCCX #12 - Salisbury, Cat 3/4 40+, 4/5
988
compound score
Race ready
vs 12m peak
-229
6w rides
27
build peak
1018
hrv 7d
75
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 243w
Actual NP: 220.5w
Implied target: 236–255w
Too conservative
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 359w 380w 94%
5 min 252w 261w 97%
20 min 219w 238w 92%
Course Intelligence
No course attached. Upload a GPX file to see climb analysis and pacing targets.
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
ROAD · November 23, 2025
NCCX #11 - NCGP - Cat 4/5 40+🥇
886
compound score
Building
vs 12m peak
-331
6w rides
28
build peak
1018
hrv 7d
74
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 243w
Actual NP: 202.6w
Implied target: 236–255w
Too conservative
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 316w 380w 83%
5 min 199w 281w 71%
20 min 165w 238w 69%
Course Intelligence
No course attached. Upload a GPX file to see climb analysis and pacing targets.
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
ROAD · November 22, 2025
NCCX #10 - NCGP 40+ cat4/5 - 4th
886
compound score
Building
vs 12m peak
-331
6w rides
28
build peak
1018
hrv 7d
77
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 243w
Actual NP: 195.2w
Implied target: 236–255w
Too conservative
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 360w 380w 95%
5 min 187w 281w 66%
20 min 161w 238w 68%
Course Intelligence
No course attached. Upload a GPX file to see climb analysis and pacing targets.
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
ROAD · November 16, 2025
NCCX #9 Hickory, 3/4 40+, 5/6
687
compound score
Below baseline
vs 12m peak
-530
6w rides
27
build peak
1018
hrv 7d
75
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 243w
Actual NP: 156.0w
Implied target: 236–255w
Too conservative
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 239w 380w 63%
5 min 171w 281w 61%
20 min 137w 238w 58%
Course Intelligence
No course attached. Upload a GPX file to see climb analysis and pacing targets.
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
ROAD · November 16, 2025
NCCX #9 Hickory, Cat 4/5 40+ 🥉
687
compound score
Below baseline
vs 12m peak
-530
6w rides
27
build peak
1018
hrv 7d
75
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 243w
Actual NP: 176.1w
Implied target: 236–255w
Too conservative
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 252w 380w 66%
5 min 185w 281w 66%
20 min 143w 238w 60%
Course Intelligence
No course attached. Upload a GPX file to see climb analysis and pacing targets.
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
ROAD · November 8, 2025
NCCX #7 Davidson - Cat 3/4 Masters, 🥉
919
compound score
Race ready
vs 12m peak
-298
6w rides
24
build peak
1018
hrv 7d
77
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 243w
Actual NP: 207.9w
Implied target: 236–255w
Too conservative
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 299w 380w 79%
5 min 235w 281w 84%
20 min 201w 238w 84%
Course Intelligence
No course attached. Upload a GPX file to see climb analysis and pacing targets.
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
ROAD · November 2, 2025
NCCX #6 Rock Hill - 40+ 3/4, 5/10
1018
compound score
Race ready
vs 12m peak
-199
6w rides
22
build peak
1018
hrv 7d
64
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 240w
Actual NP: 222.4w
Implied target: 233–252w
Slightly under
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 335w 393w 85%
5 min 211w 281w 75%
20 min 194w 238w 81%
Course Intelligence
No course attached. Upload a GPX file to see climb analysis and pacing targets.
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
ROAD · October 19, 2025
NCCX #3 Boone, Cat 3/4 40+, 5/11
884
compound score
Building
vs 12m peak
-333
6w rides
25
build peak
1058
hrv 7d
85
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 240w
Actual NP: 180.8w
Implied target: 233–252w
Too conservative
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 260w 419w 62%
5 min 183w 281w 65%
20 min 166w 238w 70%
Course Intelligence
No course attached. Upload a GPX file to see climb analysis and pacing targets.
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
ROAD · October 19, 2025
NCCX #3 Boone, Cat 4/5 40+, 4/12
884
compound score
Building
vs 12m peak
-333
6w rides
25
build peak
1058
hrv 7d
85
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 240w
Actual NP: 202.9w
Implied target: 233–252w
Too conservative
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 364w 419w 87%
5 min 202w 281w 72%
20 min 179w 238w 75%
Course Intelligence
No course attached. Upload a GPX file to see climb analysis and pacing targets.
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI
GRAVEL · September 13, 2025
Dirt Diggler, 13/27 40+ — 72/164 Overall
1046
compound score
Race ready
vs 12m peak
-171
6w rides
23
build peak
1217
hrv 7d
79
6-WEEK BUILD
6w out race day
RACE RETROSPECTIVE
FTP at race: 241w
Actual NP: 208.9w
Implied target: 193–210w
On target
Duration Actual Peak MMP at Race % of Ceiling
1 min 303w 477w 64%
5 min 259w 290w 90%
20 min 238w 238w 100%
Course Intelligence
No course attached. Upload a GPX file to see climb analysis and pacing targets.
RACE CONTEXT
RETROSPECTIVE · AI